I’ve now been using Windows 10 for a month, and though it’s still just an early version with lots of rough edges, I’m convinced that it’s going to be a solid desktop operating system for the world’s billion-odd mouse-and-keyboard users — when they finally decide to upgrade from Windows 7 or XP, anyway. It has been slowly dawning on me, however, that Windows 10 is a lost cause; even in a best-case scenario where Microsoft delivers the finest desktop OS to ever grace humankind, there’s no getting around the found that Windows 10 is an attempt to revivify a slowly dying beast. While there’s always a chance that Windows 10 triggers some kind of renaissance, it’s far more likely that it will be squished into ignominious oblivion by the stumbling, apathetic, and commoditized beast that the desktop PC has become.

If you’re old enough, cast your mind back to 1995 and the imminent release of Windows 95. The excitement that surrounded Windows 95 was a palpable, global phenomenon — driven partly by insane marketing stunts, but also people were earnestly excited by the idea of a new, colorful, plug-and-play desktop OS. The fanfare that surrounded the release of Windows 95 was only ever matched (or perhaps beaten) by one other desktop OS: Windows XP. Windows XP coincided with the PC industry’s (and Microsoft’s) boom years in the mid-2000s, a period of massive growth that ultimately ended with the release of the iPhone and the popularization of cheap smartphones and tablets.

Since the mid-to-late 2000s, the PC industry has mostly been treading water or steadily declining, while smartphones and tablets have enjoyed disgusting levels of success that are way, way beyond peak PC. In 2013, global smartphone shipments — not all cellphones, just smartphones — exceeded 1 billion units. PC shipments maxed out at around 350 million per year in 2010, and are now starting to decline quite rapidly.

By the time that Windows 10 comes out in mid-2015, who knows how low new PC sales will be — and of course, after the debacle of Windows 8 and the negative sentiment that it engendered, Windows PC stalwarts might be inclined to buy a Mac instead, or join the smartphone/tablet revolution. (And indeed, it says a lot that, while the PC industry has slumped over the last few years, Apple’s Mac division has enjoyed strong growth over the last few years.)

In short, the desktop PC is in trouble — and by association, so is Windows 10. Windows 10 might be the best mouse-and-keyboard OS ever made — but we’re not living in the ’90s or early 2000s any more, and the phrase best mouse and keyboard OS ever made just doesn’t generate the same amount of excitement that it once did.

This, I think, will be Windows 10’s undoing. Gone are the days of big, flashy OS releases. The annual releases of Android and iOS haven’t quite conditioned us to be completelyoblivious and underwhelmed by operating systems, but they have certainly taught us that OSes are ultimately just tools to help us get stuff done. The regular, low-key releases of the mobile OSes has also taught us that paying for an operating system — or doing something crazy, like queuing around the block at midnight to get a boxed copy — is just not the done thing any more. For Apple and Google, which make their money from hardware and advertising respectively, this downplaying of the OS has worked out just fine — for Microsoft, which based its entire empire on sales of Windows licenses, this is a problem.

Your move, Microsoft

Windows 8 couldn’t have come at a worse time: Just as interest in the PC was starting to wane — just as Microsoft needed to bring people back into the PC fold — Windows 8 came along and did the exact opposite. If you needed proof that smartphones and tablets were the next great thing, Windows 8 was it. If you had been sitting on the fence between buying your first smartphone or a new laptop, Windows 8 banished all doubt. Early versions of Windows Phone 7 and 8 certainly didn’t help matters, either.

Where does this leave Microsoft? That’s a very good question. Microsoft’s biggest problem is a general lack of consumer interest and enthusiasm. Microsoft’s business model is so inexorably tied to the PC that, really, it would’ve been a miracle if it somehow weathered the storm of disinterest and apathy that has hit the industry over the last few years. You could say, with an apologetic nod to the Queen, that a low tide sunk all of Microsoft’s ships.

Somehow, Microsoft needs to get people excited about its products again. It seems to be doing okay on the enterprise front with Azure and Office 365 — but it needs more than that, if it wants to fend off the transition into a silent and brooding behemoth like IBM. It needs a runaway hit, like Windows 95 or Windows XP — like the iPhone or Android.

I just don’t see how Windows 10 is that product. Yes, power users and IT types will love Windows 10 — but it isn’t going to drive some kind of PC renaissance. It won’t stop the tide of people switching to smartphones and tablets. It won’t stop IT types having to support the growing popularity of non-Windows bring-your-own-device (BYOD) in the workplace. At best, Windows 10 will get enterprises and institutions to do one more upgrade cycle — and then, with Windows 10 possibly being the last major version of Windows, that will be that. RIP.

As I see it, the only way out for Microsoft is to find a market segment where it can garner some bona fide, grass roots enthusiasm. The fitness-oriented Microsoft Band is a good first effort. The Surface tablets have had a rough start, but the latest figures suggest that Microsoft might be gaining at least a modicum of traction. Smartphones are the most obvious choice, but I’m fairly sure that Microsoft has missed the boat — Windows Phone just didn’t stand a chance against iOS and Android.

Ultimately, Microsoft needs to deliver a really good product — or ideally, a bunch of them — in market sectors that are still emerging. Windows 10 is important in the short term, but Microsoft needs to keep its eye on the prize and regularly remind itself that a new desktop OS is nothing more than a gussied-up cash cow that has been defibrillated one too many times. CEO Satya Nadella’s stated goal of refocusing the company on cloud and mobile is a good start and a sign that New Microsoft’s heart is in the right place. Now we just sit back and see if they can deliver.

, or my hands-on impressions of Windows 10

Source: http://goo.gl/YyUHb0